Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1041 LAS 10:03 → STS 11:44 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1332 LAS 15:01 → STS 16:24 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1041 Southwest	LAS 10:03	STS 11:44	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1332 Alaska	LAS 15:01	STS 16:24	17%	3%	1.8%	no record
AS 2458 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 15:24	STS 17:16	20%	2%	3.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON