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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via DFW, leaving 08:51, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 107 Southwest LAS 12:53 TPA 20:07 18% 5% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:44 → DTW 07:29DL 502 2h 46m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 9h 06m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:35 → JFK 17:59DL 333 1h 56m New York JFK 19:55 → TPA 23:20DL 1636 10h 45m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 15:20 → SFO 17:18UA 2047 3h 59m San Francisco SFO 21:17 → TPA 06:00 +1UA 1702 11h 40m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470 3h 01m Detroit DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355 9h 36m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:13 → EWR 08:20UA 406 3h 39m Newark EWR 11:59 → TPA 15:10UA 601 11h 57m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:57 → MSP 16:57DL 2262 3h 18m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → TPA 00:15 +1DL 2385 9h 18m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:11 → ORD 05:48AA 3077 3h 17m Chicago ORD 09:05 → TPA 12:56AA 2920 9h 45m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:54 → IAH 06:13UA 2009 1h 08m Houston IAH 07:21 → TPA 10:53UA 1353 6h 59m 94% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:56 → EWR 18:00UA 1784 46m Newark EWR 18:46 → TPA 21:44UA 1647 8h 48m 73% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON