Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4098 LAX 20:47 → ABQ 23:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 242 LAX 15:23 → ABQ 18:13 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4098 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:47	ABQ 23:48	7%	4%	0.5%	90%
DL 4091 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 15:00	ABQ 18:07	8%	5%	0.5%	85%
OO 130 SkyWest	LAX 08:35	ABQ 11:34	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 6515 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 13:38	ABQ 16:49	10%	6%	0.5%	81%
OO 296 SkyWest	LAX 13:30	ABQ 16:30	11%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 242 Southwest	LAX 15:23	ABQ 18:13	13%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON