tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → ORD 13:14UA 1941 2h 56m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 13h 54m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 2h 36m Minneapolis MSP 14:28 → ANC 17:28DL 411 12h 13m 98% 84%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 11:23 → PDX 13:44AS 1355 1h 17m Portland PDX 15:01 → ANC 18:00AS 315 7h 37m 95% 83%
AmericanDetails → LAX 07:00 → DFW 12:18AA 2746 2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:11 → ANC 19:35AA 399 13h 35m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360 2h 51m Denver DEN 19:07 → ANC 22:57UA 280 11h 11m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → LAX 08:00 → ORD 14:27AA 1598 2h 27m Chicago ORD 16:54 → ANC 20:34AA 375 13h 34m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 14:27 → PDX 16:47AS 1315 1h 12m Portland PDX 17:59 → ANC 20:50AS 1455 7h 23m 93% 81%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 12:47 → SEA 15:33AS 1305 3h 39m Seattle SEA 19:12 → ANC 21:59AS 1438 10h 12m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAX 09:00 → SEA 11:52AS 482 1h 05m Seattle SEA 12:57 → ANC 15:47AS 1434 7h 47m 74% 57%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 16:48 → SEA 19:18AS 585 55m Seattle SEA 20:13 → ANC 22:55AS 769 7h 07m 71% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON