Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 356 at 07:23 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 356 LAX 07:23 → AUS 12:17 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4153 LAX 18:15 → AUS 23:07 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 356 Southwest	LAX 07:23	AUS 12:17	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 946 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	AUS 12:38	8%	2%	0.7%	88%
UA 1625 United	LAX 08:05	AUS 13:06	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4128 Southwest	LAX 00:10	AUS 04:46	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 6243 SkyWest	LAX 09:29	AUS 14:37	12%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 4945 SkyWest	LAX 18:33	AUS 23:35	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1496 United	LAX 10:40	AUS 15:49	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 622 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:55	AUS 20:58	14%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 986 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:05	AUS 15:20	15%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 692 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:32	AUS 23:29	15%	6%	0.7%	73%
WN 4153 Southwest	LAX 18:15	AUS 23:07	23%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON