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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Buffalo on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27UA 580 2h 40m Chicago ORD 14:07 → BUF 16:49UA 580 8h 39m 100% 88%
JetBlueDetails → LAX 06:00 → JFK 14:29B6 124 2h 17m New York JFK 16:46 → BUF 18:26B6 1202 9h 26m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 3h 36m Detroit DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978 9h 08m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749 9h 09m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 9h 41m 99% 85%
JetBlueDetails → LAX 08:00 → BOS 16:40B6 288 1h 31m Boston BOS 18:11 → BUF 19:54B6 715 8h 54m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334 9h 59m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → LAX 09:23 → CLT 17:07AA 3175 3h 58m Charlotte CLT 21:05 → BUF 22:51AA 703 10h 28m 98% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON