Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2333 LAX 22:31 → BWI 06:33 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4155 LAX 11:18 → BWI 19:17 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2333 Southwest	LAX 22:31	BWI 06:33	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1093 United Flight history →	LAX 10:10	BWI 18:20	11%	5%	0.6%	90%
WN 4155 Southwest	LAX 11:18	BWI 19:17	18%	3%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:32 → MSP 05:57DL 430	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → BWI 10:42DL 2357	7h 10m	95%	90%
Delta Details →	LAX 08:05 → MSP 13:42DL 799	59m Minneapolis	MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565	7h 10m	90%	83%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	1h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 17:55 → BWI 21:32DL 2918	7h 17m	91%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON