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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:32, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2315 United LAX 08:24 CLE 15:58 6% 3% 0.5% no record
UA 2641 United Flight history → LAX 22:35 CLE 06:10 7% 3% 0.5% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:39 → IAD 18:48UA 2667 3h 27m Dulles IAD 22:15 → CLE 23:44UA 2131 10h 05m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 3h 39m Minneapolis MSP 15:31 → CLE 18:32DL 1118 9h 17m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:32 → MSP 05:57DL 430 1h 17m Minneapolis MSP 07:14 → CLE 10:14DL 1083 6h 42m 96% 91%
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:23 → PHL 18:53AA 738 3h 24m Philadelphia PHL 22:17 → CLE 23:42AA 981 10h 19m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 08m Houston IAH 07:20 → CLE 11:14UA 544 7h 23m 96% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654 3h 23m Houston IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934 9h 45m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27UA 580 2h 53m Chicago ORD 14:20 → CLE 16:54UA 1502 8h 44m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:13 → DFW 05:26AA 2490 1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:05 → CLE 10:53AA 1172 7h 40m 99% 89%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 08:05 → PHL 16:28AA 1528 47m Philadelphia PHL 17:15 → CLE 19:06AA 5862 · flown by Piedmont 8h 01m 75% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON