Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1952 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–13%.

Safest bet that day AA 1952 LAX 07:12 → CLT 15:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1596 LAX 12:51 → CLT 20:30 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1952 American Flight history →	LAX 07:12	CLT 15:05	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
AA 2115 American	LAX 23:30	CLT 07:24	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3035 American Flight history →	LAX 22:35	CLT 06:19	13%	3%	0.6%	77%
AA 3175 American Flight history →	LAX 09:23	CLT 17:07	15%	4%	0.6%	76%
AA 2070 American	LAX 11:10	CLT 18:51	19%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 1596 American	LAX 12:51	CLT 20:30	19%	6%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	LAX 07:53 → DFW 13:00AA 2766	1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:18 → CLT 17:51AA 3227	6h 58m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	LAX 08:05 → MSP 13:42DL 799	48m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → CLT 18:02DL 2820	6h 57m	84%	76%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:50 → ATL 16:50DL 327	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → CLT 19:21DL 3158	6h 31m	84%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON