tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 14:26, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2251 United LAX 10:20 CMH 17:43 16% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:23 → PHL 18:53AA 738 2h 57m Philadelphia PHL 21:50 → CMH 23:41AA 4361 · flown by Republic 10h 18m 100% 96%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494 2h 46m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 8h 17m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 3h 36m Detroit DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56DL 5634 · flown by Republic 9h 06m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:01 → MSP 05:20DL 430 1h 50m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → CMH 10:02DL 2772 7h 01m 99% 93%
AmericanDetails → LAX 11:31 → ORD 17:44AA 2891 3h 11m Chicago ORD 20:55 → CMH 23:33AA 4445 · flown by Republic 9h 02m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:00 → JFK 07:58DL 676 1h 52m New York JFK 09:50 → CMH 11:48DL 5649 · flown by Republic 8h 48m 98% 93%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:39 → IAD 18:48UA 2667 3h 44m Dulles IAD 22:32 → CMH 00:20 +1UA 3646 · flown by Republic 10h 41m 99% 93%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113 2h 41m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 8h 39m 98% 92%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAX 14:26 → ORD 20:40UA 2487 50m Chicago ORD 21:30 → CMH 23:59UA 1492 6h 33m 73% 62%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113 47m Chicago ORD 17:51 → CMH 20:15UA 1278 6h 30m 73% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON