Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 392 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 392 LAX 07:30 → DCA 15:32 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AS 6 LAX 11:48 → DCA 20:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 392 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:30	DCA 15:32	8%	2%	0.6%	81%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	LAX 08:23	DCA 16:29	10%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 591 American Flight history →	LAX 12:26	DCA 20:29	18%	5%	0.7%	78%
AS 6 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:48	DCA 20:00	23%	3%	0.7%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:32 → MSP 05:57DL 430	1h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 07:36 → DCA 11:00DL 2958	7h 28m	98%	91%
American Details →	LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971	1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:02 → DCA 10:59AA 1623	7h 28m	94%	86%
Frontier Details →	LAX 06:30 → DEN 10:03F9 3156	1h 22m Denver	DEN 11:25 → DCA 16:59F9 688	7h 29m	96%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON