Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 652 at 04:57 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 652 LAX 04:57 → DEN 08:34 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2340 LAX 13:15 → DEN 16:30 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 652 United	LAX 04:57	DEN 08:34	5%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2337 Southwest	LAX 06:46	DEN 10:01	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
F9 3156 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 06:30	DEN 10:03	6%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 1912 United Flight history →	LAX 08:47	DEN 12:13	7%	2%	0.5%	91%
AA 6376 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:12	DEN 10:45	7%	3%	0.5%	95%
DL 2148 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:00	DEN 11:28	8%	2%	0.6%	83%
UA 2061 United Flight history →	LAX 10:55	DEN 14:27	9%	3%	0.5%	91%
WN 1079 Southwest	LAX 09:37	DEN 12:51	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2610 United Flight history →	LAX 18:45	DEN 22:15	9%	5%	0.5%	91%
DL 1049 Delta Flight history →	LAX 20:28	DEN 23:53	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 360 United Flight history →	LAX 12:46	DEN 16:16	10%	5%	0.5%	90%
OO 4948 SkyWest	LAX 13:56	DEN 17:29	12%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 2146 United Flight history →	LAX 16:10	DEN 19:40	12%	6%	0.5%	79%
UA 2758 United Flight history →	LAX 14:30	DEN 18:00	15%	6%	0.5%	73%
F9 4346 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 13:48	DEN 17:21	15%	5%	0.7%	80%
WN 1595 Southwest	LAX 13:49	DEN 17:06	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 2176 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:53	DEN 18:18	18%	4%	0.6%	65%
WN 715 Southwest	LAX 17:58	DEN 21:10	19%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 8948 Delta	LAX 13:02	DEN 16:19	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2340 Southwest	LAX 13:15	DEN 16:30	19%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON