Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2811 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2811 LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 500 LAX 14:06 → DFW 19:07 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2811 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	DFW 11:15	6%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 2746 American Flight history →	LAX 07:00	DFW 12:18	7%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 2766 American Flight history →	LAX 07:53	DFW 13:00	9%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:36	DFW 14:31	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2490 American Flight history →	LAX 00:13	DFW 05:07	11%	5%	0.7%	92%
DL 420 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:53	DFW 23:59	11%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 971 American Flight history →	LAX 00:31	DFW 05:41	12%	5%	0.6%	85%
AA 1047 American Flight history →	LAX 08:55	DFW 14:04	14%	4%	0.7%	65%
F9 2564 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 16:12	DFW 21:24	15%	6%	1.0%	72%
AA 1504 American Flight history →	LAX 18:32	DFW 23:43	16%	5%	0.7%	80%
AA 2024 American Flight history →	LAX 17:35	DFW 22:46	19%	6%	0.7%	54%
F9 4964 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 00:58	DFW 06:15	19%	8%	0.8%	75%
AA 1657 American Flight history →	LAX 15:16	DFW 20:29	19%	6%	0.7%	57%
AA 1154 American	LAX 10:42	DFW 15:49	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1760 American	LAX 11:46	DFW 16:59	21%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 500 American	LAX 14:06	DFW 19:07	22%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON