tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 4891 SkyWest LAX 11:50 DSM 17:23 14% 5% 0.5% no record
OO 6230 SkyWest LAX 13:22 DSM 18:51 15% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399 3h 21m Detroit DTW 16:17 → DSM 17:09DL 5345 · flown by Endeavor 9h 39m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:00 → MSP 05:28DL 430 3h 55m Minneapolis MSP 09:23 → DSM 10:39DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 8h 39m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494 3h 07m Detroit DTW 20:15 → DSM 21:08DL 5087 · flown by Endeavor 9h 23m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 1h 46m Minneapolis MSP 13:38 → DSM 14:54DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor 6h 39m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086 9h 52m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → LAX 07:00 → DFW 12:18AA 2746 3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:53 → DSM 17:52AA 3930 · flown by Envoy 8h 52m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 3h 21m Minneapolis MSP 20:11 → DSM 21:27DL 5253 · flown by Endeavor 8h 12m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → LAX 13:29 → ORD 19:41AA 1998 3h 03m Chicago ORD 22:44 → DSM 23:59AA 4402 · flown by Republic 8h 30m 100% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 16:39 → PHX 18:10AA 2032 1h 01m Phoenix PHX 19:11 → DSM 00:00 +1AA 4950 · flown by SkyWest 5h 21m 73% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON