Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 6190 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day OO 6190 LAX 07:10 → ELP 10:17 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 330 LAX 11:31 → ELP 14:26 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6190 SkyWest	LAX 07:10	ELP 10:17	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 6453 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:49	ELP 17:59	12%	4%	0.5%	94%
WN 330 Southwest	LAX 11:31	ELP 14:26	20%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON