Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2743 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 2743 LAX 07:00 → EWR 15:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1855 LAX 13:25 → EWR 21:43 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2743 United Flight history →	LAX 07:00	EWR 15:37	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
UA 2397 United Flight history →	LAX 21:00	EWR 05:18	9%	3%	0.7%	88%
AS 286 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:13	EWR 15:04	10%	3%	0.9%	90%
B6 1574 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:33	EWR 05:00	11%	3%	0.8%	83%
UA 2303 United Flight history →	LAX 23:15	EWR 07:30	11%	3%	0.7%	77%
UA 576 United	LAX 22:01	EWR 06:09	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1700 United Flight history →	LAX 16:08	EWR 00:40	15%	5%	0.7%	84%
UA 2127 United Flight history →	LAX 10:20	EWR 19:04	16%	6%	0.7%	72%
UA 2096 United Flight history →	LAX 11:34	EWR 19:46	19%	6%	0.7%	83%
UA 1981 United Flight history →	LAX 11:15	EWR 19:30	20%	7%	0.7%	72%
UA 1950 United Flight history →	LAX 14:03	EWR 22:18	20%	6%	0.7%	61%
UA 1855 United Flight history →	LAX 13:25	EWR 21:43	23%	6%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON