Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 573 LAX 08:25 → FLL 16:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1700 LAX 10:49 → FLL 19:05 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 573 Delta	LAX 08:25	FLL 16:33	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
B6 1400 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:40	FLL 05:02	14%	6%	0.8%	78%
B6 1200 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 13:55	FLL 22:20	15%	6%	0.8%	87%
B6 1300 JetBlue	LAX 15:25	FLL 23:49	15%	8%	0.8%	no record
B6 1700 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 10:49	FLL 19:05	19%	5%	0.8%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15AA 2811	1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:40 → FLL 16:30AA 1373	7h 30m	97%	81%
United Details →	LAX 08:10 → IAH 13:40UA 1416	1h 07m Houston	IAH 14:47 → FLL 18:36UA 1424	7h 26m	95%	77%
United Details →	LAX 10:10 → IAH 15:40UA 277	55m Houston	IAH 16:35 → FLL 20:22UA 277	7h 12m	89%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON