Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:16 pm at Los Angeles); 10 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 12–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1170 LAX 17:05 → HNL 19:44 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AS 809 LAX 18:00 → HNL 20:53 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1170 United Flight history →	LAX 17:05	HNL 19:44	12%	5%	0.2%	82%
DL 443 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:37	HNL 21:22	14%	7%	0.1%	84%
AA 143 American Flight history →	LAX 15:55	HNL 18:41	17%	12%	0.2%	80%
AA 297 American Flight history →	LAX 17:22	HNL 20:25	19%	13%	0.2%	74%
WN 1320 Southwest	LAX 18:23	HNL 21:03	20%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 1056 Southwest	LAX 18:33	HNL 21:31	20%	9%	0.2%	no record
AS 809 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 18:00	HNL 20:53	20%	9%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON