Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2282 LAX 21:20 → IAD 05:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1164 LAX 13:25 → IAD 21:36 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2282 United Flight history →	LAX 21:20	IAD 05:15	6%	2%	0.5%	89%
UA 418 United Flight history →	LAX 23:31	IAD 07:34	6%	3%	0.5%	93%
UA 2372 United Flight history →	LAX 23:15	IAD 07:15	7%	3%	0.5%	100%
UA 2268 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	IAD 16:26	8%	2%	0.5%	84%
UA 2667 United Flight history →	LAX 10:39	IAD 18:48	10%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 1164 United Flight history →	LAX 13:25	IAD 21:36	11%	5%	0.6%	94%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:32 → MSP 05:57DL 430	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 07:17 → IAD 10:46DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	7h 14m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	LAX 13:10 → SLC 16:03DL 1647	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847	7h 19m	93%	82%
United Details →	LAX 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 2061	1h 13m Denver	DEN 15:40 → IAD 21:11UA 421	7h 16m	93%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON