Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via Denver, leaving 08:47, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day


DL 861 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:05	IND 16:10	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
AA 1899 American Flight history →	LAX 10:37	IND 17:50	18%	5%	0.6%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 00:32 → MSP 05:57DL 430	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28DL 2456	7h 56m	100%	95%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:40 → BOS 15:15DL 639	2h 30m Boston	BOS 17:45 → IND 20:34DL 5616 · flown by Republic	10h 54m	99%	92%
United Details →	LAX 08:15 → ORD 14:35UA 1946	3h 04m Chicago	ORD 17:39 → IND 19:56UA 3628 · flown by Republic	8h 41m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → IND 17:35DL 2979	8h 35m	99%	92%
United Details →	LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → IND 22:05UA 3707 · flown by Republic	8h 20m	98%	91%
United Details →	LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27UA 580	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 12:47 → IND 15:03UA 3702 · flown by Republic	6h 53m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	3h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → IND 18:22DL 1456	9h 07m	100%	91%
American Details →	LAX 08:05 → PHL 16:28AA 1528	1h 51m Philadelphia	PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45AA 4637 · flown by Republic	9h 40m	96%	91%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAX 10:20 → EWR 19:04UA 2127	47m Newark	EWR 19:51 → IND 22:20UA 3447 · flown by Republic	9h 00m	73%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON