Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 6471 at 09:46, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 6471 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:46	JAC 13:22	12%	5%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 11:41 → SLC 14:30DL 1194	4h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest	6h 56m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282	5h 40m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434	3h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:51 → JAC 16:58DL 509	6h 03m	98%	87%
United Details →	LAX 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 2061	1h 53m Denver	DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200	5h 58m	98%	82%
United Details →	LAX 08:47 → DEN 12:13UA 1912	1h 42m Denver	DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537	5h 38m	96%	82%
United Details →	LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360	2h 54m Denver	DEN 19:10 → JAC 20:49UA 785	7h 03m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON