Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 30 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: B6 124 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–13%.

Safest bet that day B6 124 LAX 06:00 → JFK 14:29 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 972 LAX 11:33 → JFK 19:29 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 124 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 06:00	JFK 14:29	4%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 118 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	JFK 14:37	5%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 979 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	JFK 15:39	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 2 American Flight history →	LAX 07:00	JFK 15:39	6%	3%	0.7%	86%
B6 524 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 07:27	JFK 15:59	6%	2%	0.7%	80%
DL 938 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:37	JFK 16:04	6%	2%	0.7%	79%
DL 960 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:00	JFK 05:16	7%	2%	0.7%	86%
AA 10 American Flight history →	LAX 21:27	JFK 06:03	7%	3%	0.7%	85%
B6 924 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 15:20	JFK 23:57	8%	3%	0.7%	81%
B6 1524 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:30	JFK 05:01	8%	3%	0.8%	83%
DL 934 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:38	JFK 16:57	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 915 Delta Flight history →	LAX 00:01	JFK 08:20	9%	2%	0.7%	86%
B6 624 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 14:30	JFK 23:10	9%	4%	0.7%	71%
AA 28 American Flight history →	LAX 15:15	JFK 23:54	10%	4%	0.7%	79%
B6 424 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 09:49	JFK 18:25	10%	3%	0.7%	80%
B6 224 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 12:35	JFK 21:09	10%	4%	0.7%	82%
B6 1224 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 00:05	JFK 08:31	11%	3%	0.7%	68%
AA 307 American Flight history →	LAX 14:46	JFK 23:14	11%	4%	0.7%	76%
B6 324 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 11:35	JFK 20:11	11%	4%	0.7%	77%
DL 676 Delta Flight history →	LAX 00:00	JFK 07:58	12%	2%	0.7%	81%
AA 30 American Flight history →	LAX 22:23	JFK 07:00	12%	3%	0.7%	70%
B6 1024 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 22:25	JFK 07:00	13%	3%	0.8%	82%
DL 958 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:54	JFK 18:12	13%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 4 American Flight history →	LAX 13:00	JFK 21:34	13%	5%	0.7%	76%
DL 991 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:15	JFK 23:21	13%	4%	0.7%	78%
AA 238 American Flight history →	LAX 10:11	JFK 18:52	14%	5%	0.7%	71%
AA 32 American Flight history →	LAX 11:05	JFK 19:46	15%	6%	0.7%	74%
AA 274 American Flight history →	LAX 11:55	JFK 20:36	16%	6%	0.7%	60%
DL 951 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:04	JFK 21:07	16%	4%	0.7%	74%
DL 972 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:33	JFK 19:29	19%	5%	0.7%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:32 → MSP 05:57DL 430	58m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	7h 07m	90%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON