Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 23 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2350 at 05:19 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 2350 LAX 05:19 → LAS 06:42 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2352 LAX 14:00 → LAS 15:07 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2350 Southwest	LAX 05:19	LAS 06:42	1%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1546 United Flight history →	LAX 02:01	LAS 03:18	5%	2%	0.5%	85%
DL 2253 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	LAS 08:27	7%	2%	0.6%	95%
AA 6425 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:10	LAS 09:33	7%	4%	0.6%	97%
UA 679 United Flight history →	LAX 00:45	LAS 02:02	7%	4%	0.6%	81%
WN 4280 Southwest	LAX 09:19	LAS 10:32	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 371 United	LAX 18:59	LAS 20:29	8%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1522 American	LAX 00:20	LAS 01:41	8%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 6511 SkyWest	LAX 15:37	LAS 17:03	8%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1047 United	LAX 10:35	LAS 12:04	9%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 2202 Delta Flight history →	LAX 19:55	LAS 21:04	9%	3%	0.7%	74%
UA 1108 United	LAX 16:45	LAS 18:15	9%	5%	0.5%	no record
F9 2264 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 01:25	LAS 02:48	10%	6%	0.8%	66%
DL 2120 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:32	LAS 16:41	12%	5%	0.6%	69%
F9 2334 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 17:18	LAS 18:42	12%	9%	0.9%	43%
UA 2403 United	LAX 13:44	LAS 15:03	13%	6%	0.5%	no record
F9 3292 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 12:07	LAS 13:29	13%	6%	0.8%	80%
WN 4162 Southwest	LAX 15:38	LAS 16:48	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 2785 American Flight history →	LAX 19:30	LAS 20:53	14%	6%	0.7%	72%
DL 1696 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:00	LAS 12:12	14%	3%	0.6%	77%
WN 1719 Southwest	LAX 12:19	LAS 13:29	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 2529 American Flight history →	LAX 12:20	LAS 13:46	18%	9%	0.6%	57%
WN 2352 Southwest	LAX 14:00	LAS 15:07	20%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON