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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:15, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 3h 08m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 9h 25m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 2h 36m Detroit DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603 8h 50m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 3h 38m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732 10h 03m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 47m Houston IAH 07:59 → LGA 12:38UA 1143 8h 47m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:13 → DFW 05:26AA 2490 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:40 → LGA 12:13AA 1609 9h 00m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → LGA 13:00AA 1056 9h 29m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 9h 24m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAX 10:45 → BOS 19:20DL 437 2h 40m Boston BOS 22:00 → LGA 23:23DL 5840 · flown by Republic 9h 38m 96% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113 48m Chicago ORD 17:52 → LGA 21:07UA 8157 7h 22m 72% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON