Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1395 at 08:13 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1395 LAX 08:13 → MCI 13:14 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 626 LAX 16:23 → MCI 21:28 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1395 Southwest	LAX 08:13	MCI 13:14	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 5426 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:10	MCI 15:45	8%	5%	0.5%	92%
DL 1517 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:35	MCI 14:50	9%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 2243 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:25	MCI 23:41	15%	5%	0.6%	85%
WN 626 Southwest	LAX 16:23	MCI 21:28	19%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON