Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 482 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 482 LAX 07:35 → MCO 15:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1024 LAX 10:51 → MCO 18:56 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 482 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	MCO 15:35	10%	3%	1.3%	84%
WN 2355 Southwest	LAX 22:55	MCO 06:34	12%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 718 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:05	MCO 00:07	15%	6%	1.6%	77%
UA 1621 United Flight history →	LAX 10:24	MCO 18:30	22%	6%	0.9%	89%worse than usual
F9 4146 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 23:00	MCO 07:13	24%	9%	2.7%	52%
DL 867 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:34	MCO 18:49	26%	6%	1.3%	69%
AA 1024 American Flight history →	LAX 10:51	MCO 18:56	30%	9%	1.2%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON