Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 778 at 21:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 778 LAX 21:00 → MIA 05:25 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 858 LAX 10:35 → MIA 18:37 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 778 American	LAX 21:00	MIA 05:25	9%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2777 American Flight history →	LAX 22:53	MIA 07:11	10%	5%	0.7%	91%
AA 345 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	MIA 16:19	13%	5%	0.8%	87%
DL 811 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	MIA 18:07	18%	7%	1.3%	77%
AA 467 American	LAX 13:42	MIA 21:51	22%	13%	0.8%	no record
AA 858 American	LAX 10:35	MIA 18:37	30%	10%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	LAX 19:30 → LAS 20:53AA 2785	1h 22m Las Vegas	LAS 22:15 → MIA 06:03 +1AA 1539	7h 33m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	LAX 19:15 → SLC 22:04DL 1483	56m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	7h 25m	89%	78%
United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	48m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	7h 02m	93%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON