Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 6378 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:57	OKC 13:18	9%	5%	0.5%	97%
AA 6385 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:21	OKC 22:43	10%	6%	0.6%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LAX 00:00 → DFW 05:08AA 2490	2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:14 → OKC 08:25AA 4946 · flown by SkyWest	6h 25m	100%	90%
United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	3h 26m Houston	IAH 09:38 → OKC 11:16UA 5619 · flown by SkyWest	8h 25m	100%	88%
American Details →	LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971	3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:00 → OKC 10:12AA 1902	7h 41m	100%	87%
United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	58m Houston	IAH 12:10 → OKC 13:50UA 6180 · flown by Mesa	6h 05m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862	8h 22m	97%	86%
United Details →	LAX 14:30 → DEN 18:00UA 2758	2h 44m Denver	DEN 20:44 → OKC 23:26UA 4727 · flown by SkyWest	6h 56m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	LAX 13:15 → ATL 20:56DL 395	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423	8h 37m	95%	85%
United Details →	LAX 10:10 → IAH 15:40UA 277	2h 32m Houston	IAH 18:12 → OKC 19:53UA 5278 · flown by SkyWest	7h 43m	97%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON