Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2222 at 06:54 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 2222 LAX 06:54 → PHL 15:31 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 738 LAX 10:23 → PHL 18:53 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2222 American	LAX 06:54	PHL 15:31	5%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2010 American Flight history →	LAX 00:08	PHL 08:17	8%	3%	0.7%	72%
AA 3276 American Flight history →	LAX 22:46	PHL 07:00	12%	3%	0.7%	63%
AA 1528 American Flight history →	LAX 08:05	PHL 16:28	13%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 2148 American	LAX 14:25	PHL 22:55	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 738 American Flight history →	LAX 10:23	PHL 18:53	16%	5%	0.7%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:32 → MSP 05:57DL 430	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44DL 2688	7h 12m	95%	90%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022	7h 24m	96%	86%
American Details →	LAX 00:13 → DFW 05:26AA 2490	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 06:31 → PHL 10:56AA 9832	7h 43m	92%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON