Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2364 at 06:44 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 2364 LAX 06:44 → PHX 08:16 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1994 LAX 13:10 → PHX 14:40 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2364 Southwest	LAX 06:44	PHX 08:16	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2712 American	LAX 06:46	PHX 08:30	6%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 4077 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:04	PHX 22:53	8%	5%	0.6%	88%
WN 836 Southwest	LAX 09:13	PHX 10:37	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 4119 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:21	PHX 09:56	9%	5%	0.5%	85%
DL 3951 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:01	PHX 11:34	9%	5%	0.5%	86%
OO 5291 SkyWest	LAX 18:47	PHX 20:23	10%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 5419 SkyWest	LAX 10:11	PHX 11:45	10%	6%	0.5%	no record
DL 3894 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 13:46	PHX 15:21	11%	8%	0.6%	88%
UA 1125 United	LAX 16:17	PHX 17:48	11%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 1567 Southwest	LAX 18:15	PHX 19:45	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 2367 Southwest	LAX 16:33	PHX 17:57	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2211 American	LAX 18:55	PHX 20:31	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2365 Southwest	LAX 13:45	PHX 15:08	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2388 American	LAX 10:00	PHX 11:33	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
F9 3606 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 20:56	PHX 22:44	18%	8%	0.8%	76%
AA 2032 American Flight history →	LAX 16:39	PHX 18:10	18%	8%	0.6%	65%
AA 1994 American Flight history →	LAX 13:10	PHX 14:40	19%	9%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON