tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 504 at 16:24, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 504 United LAX 16:24 RDM 18:39 13% 5% 0.7% no record
AS 2162 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record LAX 20:52 RDM 22:59 19% 6% 1.7% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Redmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311 3h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 23:07 → RDM 23:58DL 3756 · flown by SkyWest 6h 53m 99% 95%
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → RDM 11:35DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest 6h 00m 99% 94%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 17:00 → SEA 19:52AS 698 3h 01m Seattle SEA 22:53 → RDM 23:59AS 2094 · flown by Horizon 6h 59m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAX 12:09 → SEA 14:55DL 1045 2h 30m Seattle SEA 17:25 → RDM 18:43DL 4141 · flown by SkyWest 6h 34m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAX 11:47 → SFO 13:23UA 1245 3h 15m San Francisco SFO 16:38 → RDM 18:23UA 2418 6h 36m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:45 → SEA 20:27DL 2640 1h 08m Seattle SEA 21:35 → RDM 22:57DL 4047 · flown by SkyWest 5h 12m 91% 82%
AmericanDetails → LAX 13:10 → PHX 14:40AA 1994 2h 00m Phoenix PHX 16:40 → RDM 19:07AA 3597 · flown by Envoy 5h 57m 90% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:30 → SFO 09:06UA 1372 1h 22m San Francisco SFO 10:28 → RDM 12:12UA 2153 4h 42m 93% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAX 11:23 → PDX 13:44AS 1355 46m Portland PDX 14:30 → RDM 15:20AS 2173 · flown by Horizon 3h 57m 74% 71%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 09:00 → SEA 11:52AS 482 47m Seattle SEA 12:39 → RDM 13:18AS 275 4h 18m 36% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON