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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 462 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:59 RDU 17:57 12% 2% 0.6% 79%
AA 1754 American LAX 09:02 RDU 17:07 14% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399 3h 06m Detroit DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407 9h 17m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:01 → MSP 05:25DL 430 1h 39m Minneapolis MSP 07:04 → RDU 10:30DL 2519 7h 29m 98% 91%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:00 → DFW 05:08AA 2490 1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 06:57 → RDU 10:49AA 2683 7h 49m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 2h 26m Detroit DTW 21:40 → RDU 23:25DL 2839 8h 35m 97% 91%
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:11 → JFK 18:52AA 238 3h 18m New York JFK 22:10 → RDU 00:12 +1AA 4573 · flown by Republic 11h 01m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → RDU 17:25DL 2600 8h 25m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → LAX 06:00 → JFK 14:37AA 118 3h 53m New York JFK 18:30 → RDU 20:27AA 4804 · flown by Republic 11h 27m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:00 → ATL 14:35DL 515 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 17:18 → RDU 18:54DL 1097 8h 54m 99% 90%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528 48m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518 6h 57m 69% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON