Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3929 LAX 21:59 → RNO 23:28 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 2152 LAX 11:11 → RNO 12:39 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3929 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:59	RNO 23:28	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 3908 Southwest	LAX 08:25	RNO 09:54	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 4637 SkyWest	LAX 16:06	RNO 17:42	10%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 1544 United	LAX 13:15	RNO 14:58	10%	6%	0.5%	no record
DL 3902 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:58	RNO 14:25	11%	5%	0.5%	91%
DL 4126 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:50	RNO 18:21	11%	5%	0.5%	90%
DL 4099 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:20	RNO 09:53	13%	3%	0.5%	96%
WN 2152 Southwest	LAX 11:11	RNO 12:39	15%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON