Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3746 LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 3716 LAX 10:07 → SAN 11:13 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3746 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:45	SAN 23:42	7%	3%	0.8%	87%
UA 1100 United	LAX 19:15	SAN 20:22	9%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 4087 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:20	SAN 19:17	10%	6%	0.8%	84%
DL 4001 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:11	SAN 15:08	12%	6%	0.7%	82%
UA 1068 United	LAX 10:36	SAN 11:50	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 3716 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:07	SAN 11:13	16%	6%	0.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON