Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 12–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4962 LAX 18:22 → SAT 23:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 2686 LAX 18:59 → SAT 23:54 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4962 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:22	SAT 23:29	12%	5%	0.6%	84%
AA 6497 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:24	SAT 14:35	12%	5%	0.5%	84%
DL 2568 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:55	SAT 14:53	13%	3%	0.5%	89%
WN 2153 Southwest	LAX 09:16	SAT 14:16	16%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4695 Southwest	LAX 09:20	SAT 14:18	16%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 2686 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:59	SAT 23:54	18%	5%	0.5%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON