tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, OO 545 at 20:51, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 545 SkyWest LAX 20:51 SBA 21:47 9% 5% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 2h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 6h 24m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:41 → SLC 14:30DL 1194 2h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 17:08 → SBA 18:16DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 6h 35m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311 1h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest 5h 00m 92% 88%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668 1h 26m Portland PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon 6h 05m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAX 11:47 → SFO 13:23UA 1245 3h 40m San Francisco SFO 17:03 → SBA 18:32UA 639 6h 45m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:30 → SFO 09:06UA 1372 1h 23m San Francisco SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578 4h 22m 95% 82%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 14:27 → PDX 16:47AS 1315 1h 01m Portland PDX 17:48 → SBA 20:04AS 2029 · flown by Horizon 5h 37m 90% 80%
UnitedDetails → LAX 14:30 → DEN 18:00UA 2758 1h 32m Denver DEN 19:32 → SBA 21:21UA 8145 6h 51m 92% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAX 12:47 → SEA 15:33AS 1305 47m Seattle SEA 16:20 → SBA 18:36AS 610 5h 49m 56% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON