Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 304 at 09:32 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 304 LAX 09:32 → SEA 12:30 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 457 LAX 09:16 → SEA 11:36 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 304 Delta	LAX 09:32	SEA 12:30	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 6047 SkyWest	LAX 16:23	SEA 19:18	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1045 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:09	SEA 14:55	13%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 1551 Delta Flight history →	LAX 19:17	SEA 22:05	13%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 6371 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:00	SEA 22:57	13%	3%	0.6%	74%
DL 2980 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	SEA 10:00	14%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2606 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:00	SEA 16:40	14%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 1295 United	LAX 12:35	SEA 15:32	14%	6%	0.5%	no record
AS 614 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 20:09	SEA 22:58	15%	4%	0.6%	88%
AA 6438 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:52	SEA 16:01	16%	5%	0.6%	91%
DL 2640 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:45	SEA 20:27	16%	4%	0.6%	83%
AS 698 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 17:00	SEA 19:52	16%	5%	0.6%	91%
F9 1177 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 15:04	SEA 17:51	16%	6%	1.0%	82%
AS 770 Alaska	LAX 19:22	SEA 22:10	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 6476 SkyWest	LAX 10:33	SEA 13:39	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 5736 SkyWest	LAX 08:34	SEA 11:36	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 748 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:00	SEA 09:49	21%	3%	0.6%	88%
AS 798 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 10:00	SEA 12:48	22%	3%	0.6%	88%
AS 585 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 16:48	SEA 19:18	22%	5%	0.7%	87%
AS 482 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 09:00	SEA 11:52	23%	3%	0.6%	85%
AS 1305 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 12:47	SEA 15:33	24%	5%	0.6%	76%
AS 457 Alaska	LAX 09:16	SEA 11:36	30%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON