Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 33 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 781 at 05:49 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 781 LAX 05:49 → SFO 07:17 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 519 LAX 08:20 → SFO 09:43 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 781 United	LAX 05:49	SFO 07:17	2%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1421 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	SFO 08:21	10%	3%	0.8%	94%
OO 6276 SkyWest	LAX 14:27	SFO 16:05	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 3178 Southwest	LAX 15:31	SFO 16:53	13%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 2837 United	LAX 18:56	SFO 20:39	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 3138 American Flight history →	LAX 17:28	SFO 18:59	13%	6%	0.6%	69%
OO 6274 SkyWest	LAX 07:27	SFO 09:01	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 6260 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:34	SFO 21:04	13%	5%	0.8%	63%
UA 2056 United Flight history →	LAX 21:34	SFO 23:02	14%	5%	0.5%	61%
UA 469 United Flight history →	LAX 13:18	SFO 14:46	14%	5%	0.6%	77%
UA 2019 United Flight history →	LAX 16:14	SFO 17:42	14%	6%	0.6%	68%
DL 689 Delta	LAX 12:09	SFO 13:32	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1372 United Flight history →	LAX 07:30	SFO 09:06	15%	4%	0.6%	49%
WN 2374 Southwest	LAX 17:49	SFO 19:11	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 1501 Alaska	LAX 07:12	SFO 08:32	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 726 Alaska	LAX 16:57	SFO 18:18	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2197 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:11	SFO 19:35	15%	5%	0.8%	45%
WN 2797 Southwest	LAX 13:16	SFO 14:36	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1245 United Flight history →	LAX 11:47	SFO 13:23	16%	5%	0.6%	79%
AS 1406 Alaska	LAX 14:24	SFO 15:57	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3169 Southwest	LAX 08:26	SFO 09:46	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1110 American	LAX 11:00	SFO 12:30	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 6277 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:43	SFO 11:15	18%	5%	0.8%	63%
DL 1693 Delta	LAX 20:50	SFO 22:14	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
F9 2857 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 08:45	SFO 10:21	18%	6%	2.2%	50%
AS 91 Alaska	LAX 14:50	SFO 16:10	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1715 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:20	SFO 10:42	19%	4%	0.8%	52%
UA 1905 United	LAX 10:22	SFO 11:53	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 3386 SkyWest	LAX 10:06	SFO 11:40	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 2593 Southwest	LAX 11:10	SFO 12:30	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1195 United Flight history →	LAX 20:10	SFO 21:38	21%	5%	0.6%	28%
DL 2267 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:25	SFO 15:44	22%	6%	0.7%	50%
AS 519 Alaska	LAX 08:20	SFO 09:43	23%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON