Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 12 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2326 LAX 06:59 → SJC 08:24 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1420 LAX 20:47 → SJC 22:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2326 Southwest	LAX 06:59	SJC 08:24	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:34	SJC 22:58	5%	3%	0.6%	88%
OO 3847 SkyWest	LAX 07:46	SJC 09:18	6%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 1380 Delta	LAX 09:27	SJC 10:49	7%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:57	SJC 14:12	7%	5%	0.6%	90%
OO 3849 SkyWest	LAX 18:06	SJC 19:30	7%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2378 Southwest	LAX 09:49	SJC 11:06	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 678 Southwest	LAX 17:04	SJC 18:22	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1316 Southwest	LAX 20:25	SJC 21:41	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2449 Southwest	LAX 14:58	SJC 16:18	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1359 Delta	LAX 16:01	SJC 17:25	9%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 1420 Delta	LAX 20:47	SJC 22:10	9%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON