Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2906 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–11%.

Safest bet that day DL 2906 LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1322 LAX 12:08 → SLC 14:54 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2906 Delta Flight history →	LAX 05:35	SLC 08:30	3%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 1318 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	SLC 10:10	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
OO 555 SkyWest	LAX 16:20	SLC 19:30	8%	5%	0.4%	no record
DL 1434 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:55	SLC 12:45	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
F9 1268 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 08:04	SLC 11:13	9%	4%	0.8%	81%
DL 1483 Delta Flight history →	LAX 19:15	SLC 22:04	10%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 1647 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:10	SLC 16:03	10%	4%	0.6%	87%
DL 1194 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:41	SLC 14:30	11%	4%	0.6%	90%
DL 2311 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:05	SLC 19:58	11%	4%	0.6%	78%
WN 1322 Southwest	LAX 12:08	SLC 14:54	14%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON