Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4173 at 06:49 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4173 LAX 06:49 → STL 12:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 776 LAX 12:23 → STL 17:48 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4173 Southwest	LAX 06:49	STL 12:33	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 5000 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:13	STL 23:59	13%	5%	0.6%	77%
WN 776 Southwest	LAX 12:23	STL 17:48	22%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON