Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Hailey on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hailey is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	3h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:25 → SUN 14:31DL 3689 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SUN 22:07DL 3985 · flown by SkyWest	4h 02m	93%	89%
United Details →	LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360	3h 09m Denver	DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest	7h 40m	99%	85%
Alaska Details →	LAX 10:00 → SEA 12:48AS 798	3h 37m Seattle	SEA 16:25 → SUN 19:01AS 2322 · flown by Horizon	8h 01m	99%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAX 12:47 → SEA 15:33AS 1305	52m Seattle	SEA 16:25 → SUN 19:01AS 2322 · flown by Horizon	5h 14m	69%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON