Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 910 LAX 22:34 → TPA 06:16 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest DL 749 LAX 10:11 → TPA 18:05 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 910 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:34	TPA 06:16	13%	3%	1.9%	79%
UA 392 United	LAX 09:39	TPA 17:41	16%	4%	1.2%	no record
DL 749 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:11	TPA 18:05	22%	4%	2.1%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	59m Houston	IAH 07:11 → TPA 10:31UA 1353	6h 40m	91%	82%
American Details →	LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 06:55 → TPA 10:27AA 2516	6h 56m	87%	77%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:00 → ATL 14:35DL 515	50m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759	6h 58m	87%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON