tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 6210 SkyWest LAX 17:11 XNA 22:39 11% 7% 0.6% no record
OO 6299 SkyWest LAX 09:48 XNA 15:11 13% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318 3h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 13:24 → XNA 17:03DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest 7h 48m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15AA 2811 3h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:29 → XNA 15:46AA 3840 · flown by Envoy 7h 46m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:06 → PHL 08:32AA 2010 1h 56m Philadelphia PHL 10:28 → XNA 12:31AA 5543 · flown by PSA 10h 25m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAX 13:15 → ATL 20:56DL 395 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 22:52 → XNA 00:05 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest 8h 50m 96% 87%
AmericanDetails → LAX 07:53 → DFW 13:00AA 2766 3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:38 → XNA 18:00AA 3693 · flown by Envoy 8h 07m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → LAX 09:31 → ORD 15:47AA 2998 3h 12m Chicago ORD 18:59 → XNA 20:53AA 3578 · flown by Envoy 9h 22m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 3h 23m Houston IAH 09:35 → XNA 11:12UA 4297 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 21m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAX 08:05 → ATL 15:41DL 782 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 19:31 → XNA 20:26DL 1710 10h 21m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528 51m Atlanta ATL 19:28 → XNA 20:24DL 5159 · flown by Endeavor 7h 26m 74% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON