Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 550 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 550 LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 3453 LGA 16:58 → ATL 19:30 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 550 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:00	ATL 08:23	4%	1%	0.7%	91%
YX 4617 Republic	LGA 06:39	ATL 09:14	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 342 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:59	ATL 09:20	5%	1%	0.7%	94%
DL 364 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:00	ATL 10:29	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 974 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:00	ATL 18:02	7%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 989 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:00	ATL 12:28	7%	2%	0.6%	84%
YX 4600 Republic	LGA 08:57	ATL 11:26	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 992 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:30	ATL 12:49	8%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 993 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:59	ATL 13:20	8%	2%	0.6%	83%
YX 4349 Republic	LGA 12:34	ATL 14:59	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 975 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:30	ATL 23:43	9%	3%	0.6%	68%
DL 969 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ATL 19:07	9%	3%	0.6%	70%
DL 994 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:00	ATL 15:32	9%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 968 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	ATL 20:24	9%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 988 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:59	ATL 16:30	9%	2%	0.6%	76%
DL 990 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:26	ATL 16:47	10%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 970 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:59	ATL 22:24	10%	3%	0.6%	66%
YX 4346 Republic	LGA 16:31	ATL 19:02	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4607 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:28	ATL 16:00	10%	3%	0.7%	59%
DL 964 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:00	ATL 21:20	11%	4%	0.6%	71%
F9 3287 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 06:29	ATL 09:17	11%	6%	0.9%	63%
YX 4348 Republic	LGA 18:24	ATL 20:51	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 3453 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 16:58	ATL 19:30	30%	10%	0.9%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON