tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:55 am at New York); 2 already left
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 4665 at 16:41, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4665 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history → LGA 16:41 AVL 18:37 21% 4% 0.3% 69%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 16:10 → AVL 17:17DL 3101 6h 18m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:59 → ATL 14:31DL 990 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 17:18 → AVL 18:27DL 5261 · flown by Endeavor 6h 28m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 21:11 → AVL 22:18DL 3116 7h 18m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → LGA 13:59 → ATL 16:30DL 988 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 19:37 → AVL 20:41DL 3071 6h 42m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → LGA 13:59 → DFW 17:04AA 1056 2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:29 → AVL 22:48AA 2399 8h 49m 93% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968 47m Atlanta ATL 21:11 → AVL 22:18DL 3116 5h 18m 72% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON