Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4488 LGA 11:40 → BGR 13:27 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 5010 LGA 16:39 → BGR 18:00 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4488 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:40	BGR 13:27	8%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 4343 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:04	BGR 13:39	8%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 5254 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 09:40	BGR 11:06	9%	3%	0.7%	85%
YX 4353 Republic	LGA 16:00	BGR 17:39	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 5396 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 21:54	BGR 23:28	13%	5%	0.8%	66%
DL 5010 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 16:39	BGR 18:00	15%	5%	0.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON