Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5638 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 5638 LGA 07:05 → BNA 08:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1010 LGA 19:49 → BNA 21:00 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5638 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:05	BNA 08:46	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 4176 Southwest	LGA 07:10	BNA 08:14	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
YX 4370 Republic	LGA 08:39	BNA 10:20	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4481 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:16	BNA 12:47	8%	2%	0.6%	70%
YX 5617 Republic	LGA 10:27	BNA 11:48	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2748 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:55	BNA 15:31	9%	3%	0.6%	82%
WN 2149 Southwest	LGA 11:38	BNA 12:46	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4380 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:53	BNA 16:15	10%	2%	0.6%	65%
WN 2395 Southwest	LGA 15:08	BNA 16:14	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 980 American	LGA 20:01	BNA 21:03	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3268 Southwest	LGA 21:55	BNA 23:02	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 1010 Delta	LGA 19:49	BNA 21:00	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 5438 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:30	BNA 12:00	22%	10%	1.9%	78%
DL 4723 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:15	BNA 21:00	37%	21%	20.8%	63%
DL 5002 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:27	BNA 19:19	38%	18%	15.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON