Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: YX 4394 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–16%.

Safest bet that day YX 4394 LGA 06:09 → BOS 07:37 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5746 LGA 18:59 → BOS 20:45 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4394 Republic	LGA 06:09	BOS 07:37	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
YX 5696 Republic	LGA 06:02	BOS 07:37	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
DL 5759 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:00	BOS 09:19	5%	1%	0.8%	88%
YX 4628 Republic	LGA 08:31	BOS 09:59	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
YX 5591 Republic	LGA 09:21	BOS 10:30	7%	1%	0.8%	no record
DL 5728 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:00	BOS 11:23	7%	1%	0.8%	86%
DL 5745 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:00	BOS 12:22	7%	2%	0.7%	81%
DL 5761 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:00	BOS 13:21	7%	2%	0.7%	80%
DL 5739 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:00	BOS 15:29	8%	2%	0.8%	80%
DL 5839 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:53	BOS 23:10	8%	3%	0.9%	78%
DL 5758 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:00	BOS 14:23	9%	2%	0.7%	80%
DL 5727 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:00	BOS 16:33	9%	3%	0.8%	63%
AA 1050 American	LGA 09:31	BOS 10:43	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
YX 4502 Republic	LGA 21:14	BOS 22:34	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 4768 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:10	BOS 22:33	11%	4%	1.0%	63%
DL 2181 Delta	LGA 21:34	BOS 22:53	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1571 American	LGA 11:31	BOS 12:41	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 1739 Delta	LGA 21:10	BOS 22:29	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 5738 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:00	BOS 19:40	14%	4%	0.9%	65%
AA 4430 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:23	BOS 18:31	15%	3%	0.8%	55%
AA 4724 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:31	BOS 18:51	15%	3%	0.8%	59%
DL 5819 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:39	BOS 18:48	15%	4%	0.9%	58%
DL 5725 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:42	BOS 19:56	16%	4%	1.0%	69%
DL 5746 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	BOS 20:45	16%	5%	1.0%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON