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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Boston, leaving 11:00, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:00 → BOS 12:22DL 5745 · flown by Republic 3h 28m Boston BOS 15:50 → BWI 17:42DL 5644 · flown by Republic 6h 42m 99% 94%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 11:26 → MDW 12:35WN 487 2h 36m Chicago MDW 15:11 → BWI 18:05WN 4832 6h 39m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078 3h 41m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 7h 16m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231 2h 20m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 5h 42m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 7h 01m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 3h 02m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 7h 47m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 7h 53m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → LGA 14:29 → DTW 16:34DL 308 3h 24m Detroit DTW 19:58 → BWI 21:39DL 2715 7h 10m 99% 90%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON